NWCR 2026!
Day two of the 2026 National Workers' Compensation Review (NWCR) at WCI 2026 continues in its second hour with:
Actuarial Insight and the Mysterious Process of Underwriting and Reserving – What You Don’t Know Can Help You or Cost You Big
Tuesday August 19, 2026; 9:55 – 10:55 a.m.
A series of posts is listed at the conclusion of this one, providing a roadmap to the entire NWCR 2026 agenda.
I spent years of my legal career striving to understand the mysterious and distant "actuaries." Their influence over claims was periodically raised and discussed in the confines of claims reviews. They were never named, merely the collective: "the actuaries" say ....
The misunderstood persona and purpose of the actuary will be addressed in a blue-ribbon panel this August at the National Workers' Compensation Review program of the Workers' Compensation Institute. There is apparently an inherent conflict in the world of claims prediction and reserves, pitting the mathematical science of actuaries against the broader community of hands-on claims professionals.
Hearing this discussed, I am often reminded of a great salesperson I knew long ago. He was focused on putting together economically advantageous exchanges for his company. He was not paid by commission, but there was, nevertheless, an "Art of War" flavor to many discussions.
I vividly recall this person's observations about lawyers. It was a persistent and negative "Lawyers are just there to screw up the deal." Don Henley's counter observation was "lawyers clean up all details" (End of the Innocence, A&M, 1989). They had, clearly, perspective differences. That is likely as true for the claims professional and the actuary. There are perspectives, interests, and foci, and they can honestly disagree.
William Zachry is on the National Workers' Compensation Review (NWCR) committee. The NWCR presents a two-day program each August at the WCI. The NWCR program will be informative this year, and the breadth of topics is notable. Mr. Zachry was a proponent of the actuary discussion this year. This will be:
Actuarial Insight and the Mysterious Process of Underwriting and Reserving – What You Don’t Know Can Help You or Cost You BigTuesday August 25, 2026; 9:55 – 10:55 a.m.
Hearing the planning committee discuss the actuary program, I was instantly reminded of a humorous exchange on the sitcom Scrubs (Touchstone, 2001-2010). It was so powerful that it became a meme on interaction. In it, one professional, a bit unprofessionally, badgers another to "help me to help you." It is an admonition about communication and works in this context.
The actuary brings something to the table that many claims professionals lack: science. That said, there are many who express doubt and disdain for actuarial science. It is a mathematical endeavor, and math is a science. Math tends to be highly predictable and replicable. We all come, in time, to faithfully believe that 2+2 = 4. Well, perhaps not always.
Mr. Zachry, in his paper Actuarial Axioms for Claims Handlers and Risk Managers, notes that "No actuarial calculation is ever entirely accurate." This is because the actuary's role is not purely mathematical. They also employ statistics, predictions, and even assumptions. Mr. Zachry also adds to this complexity the fact that the actuarial analysis allows "expected patterns," but expectations may become elusive.
It is in these variables that critics find the flaw(s) with actuarial science. If the predictions or assumptions are incorrect, then the best math in the world cannot produce accurate and reliable results and predictions.
Whether you are beyond bored with the term "artificial intelligence" (AI) or not, this program will likely reference it. The data, probabilities, and predictions of today are being influenced by the claims experience of yesterday. And that analysis is largely being delegated to large language models to organize, collate, and summarize.
The AI are generating information that humans used to collect and organize. Mr. Zachry stresses that the best tool the claims professional has is the "consistent, timely, and accurate information" about claims. If this is communicated effectively to the actuary, they can employ their best efforts to provide predictability and facilitate planning.
With this Actuarial Insight program in your arsenal, the claims manager, examiner, or adjuster will be better equipped to understand both the actuary's conclusions and process. Rather than conflict, this understanding can be used to build collaboration and consensus. Positive interaction can adjust, correct, or challenge assumptions and predictions.
Mr. Zachry is quick to provide anecdotal support. He challenged his actuary to identify specifics. He asked what claims were driving expenses and reserves significantly. He phrased this as "which are driving up your projections," and thus the necessity of reserves/collateral. He then knew which claims he could focus on closing in order to maximize the financial impact of his team's efforts.
In the same spirit, the actuary can use this Actuarial Insight presentation to better understand criticalities. Examples are how little the actuary role and work are understood or appreciated. They make an indispensable product but rarely speak to their target market and consumers. The actuary can better understand variables, assumptions, and market forces that are not empirical but based on long experience in actual claims.
In the end, the Actuarial Insight program will foster interaction, collegiality, and communication. Each side may have its plea ("help me to help you") answered with better process, communication, and output. The resulting collaborative results may drive enhanced outcomes for all involved as the walls that separate are breached.
Actuarial Insight and the Mysterious Process of Underwriting and Reserving – What You Don’t Know Can Help You or Cost You Big
Tuesday, August 19, 2026; 9:55 – 10:55 a.m.
Grand Ballroom 8B (Entrance through corridor Grand Ballrooms 7 & 8)
Moderator: Suzy Braden, NWCR Advisory Board;
Panelists:
NWCR 2026
Program Overview:
1:00-2:00 NWCR 2026 and Litigation Management
2:10-3:10 Causation Analysis
3:15-4:15 Stewardship of Truth
Tuesday, August 25, 2026
8:45-9:45 State of the States
9:55-10:55 Actuarial Insight and Mysterious Underwriting
11:00-12:00 Empathy
1:00-2:00 Rapid Fire Hot Topics
2:10-3:10 Beyond Exclusive Remedy
3:15-4:15 Strategies to Thrive in Times of Change
