A news headline in early 2026 warned that "the Doomsday Clock" is the closest to midnight that it has ever been. Reading on, you learn momentarily that it is "now 4 seconds closer to midnight than it was in 2025." According to the Doomsday people, "It is now 85 seconds to midnight."
Who are the Doomsday people? Almost 100 years ago, Einstein, Oppenheimer, and others involved with the Manhattan Project created the metaphorical clock, which uses "the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) ... to convey threats to humanity and the planet." The clock illustration is to make a visual for the rest of us, or perhaps to placate us into not demanding to see the math.
In a strange riddle, young people today seemingly struggle with things like thinking and reading, see Screen Time Wins (February 2026); It's Your Kids! (February 2026). According to YouGov.com, "only 43% of adults under 30 ... say they can instantly tell the time from the hour and minute hands." This particular analogy may be wearing thin as we old folks cede the field.
Nonetheless, a Smart People's Club confabulates every year and group-thinks a prognostication of the "world's vulnerability to global catastrophe." One of the persistent challenges with experts is when they deliver an opinion, but do not show their work. That can affect credibility. For instance, in my personal, considered opinion, Schrödinger's cat is, in fact, dead (you disprove it if you wish).
Nonetheless, they opine "catastrophe!" No, not necessarily from nuclear war. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Security Board and Board of Sponsors is assessing the catastrophe threat more broadly, from "man-made technologies." The latest prognostication is founded on nation-states ignoring the scientist's prior warnings. Despite their suggestions and recommendations,
"Russia, China, the United States, and other major countries have instead become increasingly aggressive, adversarial, and nationalistic."
This is indeed a novelty. Young people today will not have studied it, but the planet has been largely conflict-free and utopian until just recently (see below). Nonetheless, the scientists presently see a "winner-takes-all great power competition," feeding their fears of
"nuclear war, climate change, the misuse of biotechnology, the potential threat of artificial intelligence, and other apocalyptic dangers."
At the outset, this avoids the broader "use of biotechnology," but I digress. To be fair, none of these perceived threats is going to get as much airtime as Hollywood's latest loss or Sydney Sweeney's most recent outfit. Nonetheless, the Smart Club sees threats in "three regional conflicts," nuclear ambitions, the "Golden Dome," and "a new space-based arms race." This was all before the present war on Iran.
Why is it so hard to get people to focus on this? That is reasonably simple. It makes some sense that most readers would prefer something a little less intense with their morning coffee than "Global Thermonuclear War." (War Games, MGM 1983). Seeing headlines about former royal whatshisname or the latest "inappropriate relationship" is far less likely to cause indigestion or insomnia.
Historically, the Smart Club has been a bit pessimistic. In 1991, the clock was the furthest from midnight (17 minutes). In 1953 (nuclear testing) and 2018 (perceived leadership challenges on nuclear weapons), it was set to "two minutes to midnight," which is 120 seconds.
Somehow their angst then was similar to the 100 seconds in 2021 when the world was awash in the economic catastrophe that was Wuhan SARS-CoV-2, whoever started it. Think on that. The entire world economy tanked as workforces were idled, and the Smart Club thinks things are worse today.
For the sake of clarity, it was 89 seconds to midnight in 2025 and is now 85 seconds. And yet, most of America will be too busy with the kids' schedule, work, Faceplace, the Kardashians, the latest sports star arrest, and other distractions to spend much time thinking about the Smart Club Clock. I hear more complaining about traffic and gas prices than I do about the Smart Club.
Even for those who can tell time on an analog clock, the clock is a bit erudite for the common man, or at least for this one. I harken back to comedian Ron White's plan for a system of only "two states of heightened awareness: (1) go find a helmet and (2) put on the helmet." Simple. Elegant. Self-explanatory. Maybe the Smart Club should adopt something this rudimentary? Or, in our diminishing collective Idiocracy (20th Century, 2006), perhaps too few will soon recognize a helmet?
What is the goal of the Smart Club clock? My thought is that our goal should be that the clock reflects 365 days to midnight. Note that the Smart Club says we've never been there, even back in the peace-loving times of Genghis Khan, Vlad the Impaler, Attila the Hun, Alexander, Philip, Hitler, Stalin, Mao, and the list goes on).
Remember that time that we lost roughly 97% of the world's human population (the "Pleistocene bottleneck")? The volcanic winter of Toba? the "worst year to be alive" (536 CE)? The ice age? The Black Death? Ah, yes, the good old days (sarcasm, see above re utopia and today's present perceptions).
Yes, today is indeed the worst of times, according to the Smart Club of Clockkeepers. That said, is there a real difference between 120 seconds and 85? What does the lost 25 seconds mean? Einstein would tell you it is all relative. Some claim time is merely an illusion. Time is no answer and a poor reference. Can today's conflicts and threats be rationally compared to the past atrocities and catastrophes?
For that matter, some might argue there is not a great deal of difference between two minutes and 17 minutes? In the grand scheme of a life, 17 minutes is not even a Big Mac meal on the highway. It is not even the 2112 Overture (Rush); it is barely Voodoo Chile (Hendrix). But it is significantly more than Suffer (1.3 seconds total, Napalm Death, 1985). How long 17 minutes is will be relative to whether you are staring at a beautiful beach or mountain scene or some odious bag of excrement.
Though you might find fault in the clock, the Club, and the warnings, there is value in analysis and contemplation. Perhaps there is even room for fear.
We work in an environment (workers' compensation) that is large and intricately intertwined with even larger systems: economics generally, employment, technology, inflation, trade policy, health care, and more. These are each monumentally important and pervasive intellectual pursuits that have real-world impacts on the day-to-day of injury prevention, remediation, recovery, and recompense. Much like the warlords or worse, we are individually at their whim.
There are a great many minds in the realm of workers' compensation. Notably, many of them are as busy professionally as we all are and have as little time for the big picture as anyone, anywhere, has time for the Smart Club Clock. The day-to-day consumes our intellect, attention, and investment. There is only time for the next patient, calculation, payment, claim, or response.
Who will step back and ponder the big picture? Who will consider whether workers' compensation in America is vibrant, healthy, and thriving? Who will suggest the map towards a better workers' compensation tomorrow? Will it depend on an illustrative Clock or Calculator to provide some Global Assessment of Functioning? In any such assessment, will there be unanimity or acrimony?
The end of the analysis is that much we encounter in the world is up to each of us to assess subjectively. We can make judgments, form opinions, and make predictions. When we do so collectively, we may fall into the perils of groupthink or worse. This will remain true whether we are in the Smart Club or not.
And, in all, we will be subject to a vast array of personal predispositions clouding our way. See Unseen Influence: Unconscious Predisposition in Dispute Resolution (2025), available on my website www.dwlangham.com.

