Not Today

Early in 2025 (Today in mid-February, it may seem early, but at light speed, things move fast), I noted the return to office trend. See Heigh Ho (January 2025). In recent weeks, there is a seeming escalation in various employment issues: return to office and DEI programs. Each is interesting, but today's focus is the return to office.

Fortune reported recently that management has various reasons for being finished with work-from-home scenarios that proliferated during the Great Panic. As a result, it concludes "The golden age of remote work seems to be ending." Some of this is perhaps driven by the views expressed by the President, and the resulting "Return to In-Person Work" issued to all federal employees in January.

The President was blunt in his perception that many who are being paid to work from home are not working so much. Fortune notes the recent return to office examples, most of which are noted in Heigh Ho (January 2025). Some pundits claim that remote work is simply "done, kaput, fini." (Grand Canyon, 1991, 20th Century Fox).

Despite that view, I know people who remain remote for various companies. Maybe "over" is a bit premature. I have long said that the opportunities for this kind of work may come down to expertise, ability, education, and drive. Some will continue to make it work. I cite for example the President who works most days where he lives.

Though the pundit cited in Fortune says "done," he equivocates and joins me in the "some" category. His meaning is not over, as in "was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor" (Animal House, 1978, Universal). His meaning is more “There was remote work before the pandemic, and there will be a little more after the pandemic.” For the reader, his use of "pandemic" refers to the Great Panic of 2020.

The Fortune article points that are offered as evidence that there will be no great revolutionary shift to virtual work as a way of life for vast working populations are:

"No. 1: Remote work is bad for new hires and junior employees

No. 2: Workers admit that remote work (sometimes) causes more problems than in-person work

No. 3: Remote workers put in 3.5 hours less per day of work compared to in-person workers

No. 4: Productivity plummets on days when everyone is working remotely (anecdotally)"

Each of these is a problem. For the sake of clarity, the Florida OJCC did not send anyone "remote" during the Great Panic. All offices remained open and staffed. A few employees telecommuted in a team process on a periodic basis due to various concerns. According to Barrons, "60% of Americans went to work everyday during Covid."

Nonetheless, I ran into another state official during the Great Panic who was struggling with remote management in December 2021. They related how hard it was to manage their team, and were unable to grasp how they could improve. I suggested bringing the workers to the office. See Little Black Boxes (December 2021). That solution seemed so simple then; it still does.

New hires? The CEO of JP Morgan says that young people are being damaged by the remote work model. He says "We see these other kids slowly being left behind." He sees a disconnect, a tech-driven isolation, and loneliness. 

Productivity? Are at-home workers capable of producing effectively? The answer is absolutely. This is undeniable. I know people who work virtually and they are among the most prolific, effective, and efficient people I have ever known. But, the JP Morgan CEO notes that many great companies did not persist ("GE. Sears, Kmart, ...Nokia, BlackBerry").

Productivity? The JP Morgan CEO is quoted in the Barron's article that "head count has gone up by 50,000 people in four, five years." The company is not apparently growing by such leaps and bounds, but the volume of employees is. The impression left is that per-worker productivity is down and the solution has been to hire more staff, increase payroll cost, to cover the work.

But, there is evidence that productivity drops. Fortune cites some examples. What are remote workers doing with the extra time? I have talked to some who admit they do household chores during the workday. One told me he runs errands while talking to customers and coworkers on his cell phone. Some are at home in the town they used to commute in. Others are a world away. 

A recent survey reported by Resume Builder says most remote workers are working two jobs. An astounding "37% of remote workers have a second full-time job." There are 168 hours in a week, and most people spend 56 (8x7) sleeping. That leaves you 112, and a full-time job is at least 40; two full-time jobs would be at least 80, leaving you 32 (4.6 per day) hours for living your life. This is all on a 7-day schedule. If you worked the two 8-hour shifts per day in a five-day workweek, you would essentially work and sleep 100% of the 24-hour day. Something has to give.

The Resume Builder survey also says that 32% of the full-time virtual workers have a part-time job. Speaking of all of those with multiple jobs, 75% of the second employment positions are those "running their own business on the side." When faced with time conflicts and challenges, will the virtual work or the employee's "own business on the side" get the employee's priority treatment?

None of this is news. Forbes reported in October 2024 that remote work in 2025 was endangered. The conclusion then was "70% of employers (planned) to crack down ... in 2025." The workers responded in a Pew survey in January and said they would "likely leave ... if they could no longer work from home."

And thus, the immovable object meets the irresistible force. The employers are demanding a return to office. States are requiring a return to office. Private employers are requiring it. The Federal Government is requiring it. The end of remote work has not come, but it is shrinking to pre-Panic levels and will soon be only a dream for most of us. 

The writing is on the wall. There was a period when business was forced to accommodate remote work to attract talent. That era is closing as the volume of jobs that provide that accommodation is diminishing. This means less supply, and demand will be fierce. The better educated, abled, motivated, and exceptional will take those plum positions. The majority will return to the office and all that entails.

This does not mean that remote work was a bad idea. It means that remote workers are hard to manage, and disengaged from coworkers, and now we see:

"Tempted by the fruit of another
Tempted but the truth is discovered"

Squeeze, 1981, A&M. The distractions and temptations were too much for many. The productivity dropped, the costs for business increased. Those businesses are competing for consumers. The free market calls upon them to move their product or service efficiently and if they do not, their competitors may. Uncompetitive companies may find extinction, downsizing, or demise. 

Will a day come when remote work is the standard? Will our mental health, productivity, maturity, and more ever accommodate it as the rule? Doubtful. To paraphrase, "What do we say to the god of remote? not today," (Game of Thrones, 2011, HBO).