The Trough of Dissolusionment

The theme these days is Artificial Intelligence (AI). The term is bandied about with frequency and reverence. I noted in First - What is it? (November 2024) that there will come an ubiquity with AI, I noted that a time may come when product

"package's (will) reference to AI. That labeling may be the next 'as seen on TV' or 'new and improved,' pushed upon us in such volume that it achieves innocuity or cliche."

The consumer of today perhaps does not remember the onslaught of the past, in the days of print, radio, and television. We are no less subjected to ads today, but the paths have changed markedly. In the past, Madison Avenue and glitzy ad campaigns more persistently pushed products upon us.

We Boomers learned the hard way that "new and improved" seldom meant a markedly better product experience and "as seen on TV" became the punchline for products like the Chia Pet, the Pocket Fisherman, and so much worse. Certainly, the Millenials were exposed to that cliche at the end of the discount store era.

There is also merit, perhaps, in considering the various phases of the Gartner Hype Loop, see Is Gartner Helpful on AI? (December 2024). The third phase suggested by Gartner is the “trough of disillusionment.” In it, "There is some “'fail(ure) to deliver' and a resulting marketplace malaise." 

I had no sooner penned Is Gartner Helpful on AI? (December 2024) than a plausible example of the disillusionment potential appeared in the news.

The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) published US regulator says AI scanner 'deceived' users after BBC story. The theme centers on a company that manufactures and markets scanners "used in the entrances of thousands of US schools, hospitals and stadiums."

Back to the Boomers, they remember a day before such devices. Not that long ago we could enter and exit airports with convenience and ease. Many a loved one was walked to or greeted at the aircraft gate by loved ones. That was normal. We could walk into schools, courthouses, and entertainment venues. There were no scanners, bag checks, or (believe it or not) widespread violence. 

Make no mistake, scanners were a thing in the last decade of the 20th century. But they were not the thing that they are today. But I have spoken to many a GenX or GenZ who has told me over the years that September 11 caused the security and scanning. It did not, but it exacerbated the proliferation of these devices and secure buildings. 

The manufacturer featured by the BBC allegedly advertised and marketed scanning devices with reference to AI. It described how it had created images of thousands of profiles to assist the machine in identifying various shapes and contours that might indicate a weapon. 

This seems similar to the self-checkout tool I described in Long Term Solutions (June 2022). The producer of that scanning tool reportedly spent weeks photographing every product and item in a convenience store, from multiple angles, to train its scanner to identify products readily. The weapon device is seemingly similar, but more singularly purposed. 

But as to the security scanners, the BBC asserts that in marketing the company "claims to do this with artificial intelligence, which can actively detect concealed weapons like bombs, knives and guns." However, searches of the company website in late November 2024 did not reveal references to AI specifically. The website did contain a banner announcement of "Resolution of FTC Inquiry," the theme of the BBC article. 

Consistent with that absence, the BBC story recounts that the company will no longer be "making unsupported claims about its products in a proposed settlement with the US government." There is stress on the fact that the manufacturer "hasn’t admitted wrongdoing." There are many reasons for disputes to be compromised, and so no inference should be drawn by such an agreement.

Nonetheless, the BBC reports that "The FTC said the action should be a warning to other AI companies." There are several mentions of AI in the article. Ultimately, the BBC concludes that 

There is concern amongst officials in the US and UK about companies overstating the ability of artificial intelligence to improve products. In some instances it’s unclear whether artificial intelligence is being used at all.

And there is the rub. Just like "new and improved," the outcome regarding products and services in the coming days may be less than advertised. The lure of AI may draw us to products or services that are not actually AI. We might also be drawn to products that are legitimately AI and yet disappoint us nonetheless. Both tracks will lead consumers through the “trough of disillusionment.”

The paths are distinct. Whether we are misled or oversold, there is the real potential for our disappointment to hinder the adoption of AI advances. Frustration of expectation can be powerful deterrent. In parallel, our reluctance to adopt and accept may in turn frustrate the investment in and development of useful and imperative AI applications. Just as excitement and anticipation may drive upward spirals, so might disillusionment spiral us down.

That leaves us little comfort. We can invest in disappointment with the expectation of coming genuine innovation. Or we can loiter on the sidelines, avoiding charlatans and puffers, and in the process, we will impede both the good and the bad developers without discretion. 

In a view back on history, I am certain this is not new. Some invested in Hudsons, Edsels, and worse. They fell prey to the marketers and puffers. Others were not so susceptible. 

Others brought true innovation, like the Tucker. Despite the genuine and ingenious technical innovations it offered, its impacts generally came to the broad market years later in other automobiles. 

The history is easily found and cited. The "trough" is a real potential. How it and the other Gartner analyses impact AI and our near-term future remains to be seen. 

Prior posts on AI and Robotics

Will the Postal Service be our Model for Reform? (August 2014)
Attorneys Obsolete (December 2014)
How Will Attorneys (or any of us Adapt? (April 2015)
Salim Ismail and a Life-Changing Seminar (May 2015)
The Running Man from Pensacola, Florida (July 2015)
Will Revolution be Violent (October 2015)
Ross, AI, and the new Paradigm Coming (March 2016)
Chatbot Wins (June 2016)
Robotics and Innovation Back in the News (September 2016)
Universal Income - A Reality Coming? (November 2016)
Artificial Intelligence in Our World (January 2017)
Another AI Invasion, Meritocracy? (January 2017)
Strong Back Days are History (February 2017)
Nero May be Fiddling (April 2017)
The Coming Automation (November 2017)
Tech is Changing Work (November 2018)
Hallucinating Technology (January 2019)
Inadvertently Creating Delay and Making Work (May 2019)
Artificial Intelligence Surveillance (August 2020)
Robot in the News (October 2021)
Safety is Coming (March 2022)

Metadata and Makeup (May 2022)
Long Term Solutions (June 2022)
Intelligence (November 2022)
You're Only Human (May 2023).
AI and the Latest (June 2023)
Mamma Always Said (June 2023)
AI and the Coming Regulation (September 2023)
AI Incognito (December 2023)
The Grinch (January 2024)
AI in Your Hand (April 2024)
AI and DAN (July 2024)
AI is a Tool (October 2024)

Rights for the Toaster (October 2024)
Everybody Wake Up! (October 2024)
First What is it? (November 2024)
X-Files or Poltergeist? (November 2024)

Is Gartner Helpful on AI? (December 2024).