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Tuesday, December 3, 2024

Stay out of my Garage

I purchased a shovel at the local hardware store a couple of years ago. It was a seemingly simple transaction in which I used hard-earned currency minted by the U.S. government, for which I had exchanged my labor. I handed that currency to this vendor, at a price it demanded, and I received my shovel. 

I transported that shovel home and used it for various tasks and challenges in my yard. I even loaned it to a neighbor a few times for the sake of community. 

Periodically, the folks from the "hardware store" come by my home and rummage about in my garage. They have sanded over and remodeled that shovel a few times over the last few years. They claim that their efforts will make this a better shovel. They are sometimes all about the "new and improved." 

I am usually surprised when these remodels occur. The "hardware store" people simple let themselves into my garage as and when they wish. To them, somehow, the value exchange that I perceived as purchasing a shovel is somehow more of a lease. They perceive this to be their shovel and that I am mere licensee, possessor, or chaperone. 

To be honest, I am sure there have been some shovel remodels that I never even noticed. To me, the real point is whether that tool will dig a hole or not. I am not interested in the paint job, decals, or even warning labels. As an aside, when did we reach a point where a shovel needed a warning label?

Recently, however, the "hardware store" folks came in the night and apparently renovated my (or "their") shovel yet again. I noticed because they changed the locks on my garage when they left. Not only was the shovel different, but I could not get it out of the garage. I had to use another tool to research how to get past their proprietary locks. 

They were no longer satisfied with their periodic forays into my home, but felt compelled to lock me out of it in the process. When I tried to enter my garage, their new locks asked me to "log in" with their company so that they could track my use of both the garage and the shovel. Their vision was that I would "sign in" with their security as a protection.

No, I soon learned that I did not have to either have or create a "hardware store" account to gain access to my own garage. The Internet taught me that I could simply use the old-fashioned override of Ctrl-Alt-Delete, and then select "sign out" to avoid their presumptuous intrusion into my space. 

Yes, the shovel allegory is false. Actually, I purchased a software and use it on a computer. The company that wrote it pushes their updates and amendments into that software at their will, on their schedule, and with their demands and requirements. There is no request for permission or opportunity to decline. In this one-way relationship, they are entitled to both my money and their unilateral control of my purchase. 

The model is deeply intriguing. It is amazing that the seller is reaching into my home to alter my purchase. It is worse, however, when they purport to require my acquiescence to their invasion and change the locks on my doors. That said, I am certain that I agreed to this relationship somewhere in the litany that was followed by that initial "Accept" click that completed the initial lease agreement.   

Somehow that does not forestall the sting of wasting time researching and deploying the "Ctrl-Alt-Delete" alternative. And I am reminded of the old adage that if you are not the customer, you are the product. Time and again, people have said that the distinction is if something is "free," like social media. But in this instance, I both paid for the product and am still apparently the product. 

Sunday, December 1, 2024

Is Gartner Helpful on AI?

As many are, I am focusing significant energy on the Artificial Intelligence (AI). See X-Files or Poltergeist? (November 2024). I will be striving to comprehend the tools and discuss the implications in coming days. The topic is not new to me. I have published a few articles on robotics, technology, and AI before (a list is included in this post). X-Files or Poltergeist? focused on Turing. Today, I turn to Gartner for some referential perspective. 
 
The world is waking up slowly to the idea of AI. One illustration is the intense interest of a small population of lawyers. One voluntary organization of lawyers, the American Bar Association (ABA), is interested from the standpoints of its Science and Technology Section, Intellectual Property Law Section, Civil Rights And Social Justice Section, Government And Public Sector Section, International Law Section, and Cybersecurity Section.

That is a broad front. It is important to persistently reiterate that the ABA does not speak for all lawyers. It is a private group to which some lawyers belong. It has a history of addressing legal issues, but that has included some perceptions of detours beyond the law into social issues. In short, the organization has both supporters and detractors.

There are lawyers who are concerned about AI. They are concerned about its evolution and influence on the practice of law. As a trade group of and for lawyers, that is seemingly in the organization’s wheelhouse. Some fear self-preservation. Some fear change more foundationally. Some simply fear. And there is also concern beyond the practice of law, and the potential that some will see those as social issues. See Rights for the Toaster (October 2024).

There have been expressions of recognition that we are on a threshold. I have not heard from any speaker that there is confidence regarding the current state of AI. Some have mentioned the various large language models (LLM), the forays of some into “proofs of concepts,” and the theoretical potentials that are foreseen. 

Many are in the market today promoting their products as solutions. They are met with the gamut from horror to skepticism to curiosity to buy in. AI currently exists but remains imperfect, mistrusted, and experimental. 

As I listen to so many discuss AI, I am reminded inexorably of Winston Churchill. Sure, find me two other people who get to Winston on the topic of AI and I would love to have a drink and chat with them. But Winston is credited with
“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
I would suggest that AI today is neither the harbinger of doom for human existence nor the ultimate panacea. It will be different things to different people. Some will engage it for good and others not so much. It is perhaps helpful to view the innovation through a lens.

One that is talked about regarding technology is the Gardner Hype Cycle. I have heard it applied to the current AI posture. That is a worthy consideration and perhaps an uncomfortable one for some. The world is replete with human interpretations of phenomena and occurrences. We refer to these maxims in an attempt to understand our world and describe both perception and belief about our surroundings, posture, and progress.

The Gartner Hype Cycle is one such description applied to technology innovation. I do not endorse this or any description (lens), but I find it informative. Gartner captures the potential for a euphoric reaction to “when new technologies make bold promises.” This is cyclical and repetitive, but you have generally needed to stick around a while to notice that. With the speed of technology accelerating, perceiving that repetition may become more ready.

Who (or what) is Gartner?

The "Gartner Hype Cycle" is not focused on an outcome, but a process. It is intended to facilitate decision-making for those who are faced with (r)evolutionary technological leaps. Professionally and personally, we are faced with opportunities and decisions both in what we do and how we do it. Gartner provides five moments that may occur with any new technology and focuses us on the potential path it will take.

First is the “innovation trigger.” This is the advent of something latest and greatest. It occurs when someone makes public some “proof-of-concept,” which excites the marketplace. Think of the news story for the first cell phone test, internet watch, or self-driving car. There are excited claims and we all think to ourselves what it might be like to have a flying car.

Think of the news story that those two bicycle guys had managed to defy gravity with a heavier-than-air flight down in Kitty Hawk, North Carolina (1903). There was ample excitement. It pays to be first. Their names will forever be linked to flight. 

Second is the “peak of inflated expectations.” In this evolutionary era, there are some success stories in the news. Trade magazines with a more narrow focus start to discuss the idea. Amongst the successes, there are “scores of failures.” At this moment, there are both births and deaths of start-ups. The survivors will be the ones blessed with focus leadership, significant capital reserves, and frequently bold risk attitudes.

Many jumped into the fray with efforts to both copy the Wright Brother’s initial success and to exceed their progress. There is little to be gained in a flight like theirs (12 seconds, I can hold my breath that long). Being first is exciting, but those who followed needed to fly farther, faster, higher, longer, etc. to generate news coverage and interest. There is rarely newsworthiness in doing what the guy down the street did yesterday. 

Third is the onset of reality. The “trough of disillusionment.” Here, there is some “fail(ure) to deliver” and a resulting marketplace malaise. High hopes turn to disappointment either in the extent of fulfillment (it does not work as promised or has unforeseen shortcomings) or the timing (think of a product that had a promised roll-out date, but then was not on the shelves for years after).

Aircraft innovators and adopters found danger, failure, and death. There was reporting of some excitement, but once the initial Kitty Hawk news coverage cooled, there was little marketplace appreciation for how and when this might impact their individual lives. There was a long pull between Kitty Hawk and today's flights (today, daily: “45,000 flights and 2.9 million airline passengers across more than 29 million square miles of airspace.”).

Fourth is the “slope of enlightenment.” Here, after some patience and adaptation, we see repetitive instances of viable deployment. The benefits of the innovation become more credible through reproduction, further innovation, and evolution. There “appear second- and third-generation products” with the technology. The “proof-of-concept” becomes proof-of-application. There will be increased access to resources and rewards as this slope develops.

The airplane was invented in America. But, its slope of enlightenment began instead in Paris (no, not Texas, the other one). The intrepid Wright Brothers showed their innovation to the world there. The flights were repeated, accessible, and exciting. There was talk of adaptation and integration. The acceptance and deployment will depend on excitement.

Finally, fifth, we reach the “plateau of productivity.” Here, there is “mainstream adoption” of the innovation per se or of integrating it into existing mainstream process. There is a broader grasp of both risk and benefit afforded by the innovation, and with stronger information access various market elements will make informed adoption or integration decisions.

Florida was the site of “productivity.” It was here that the first scheduled commercial flight occurred. It was here that the U.S. Navy bought in with a base designed around training pilots and implementing heavier-than-air aircraft deployment.

In this stage, someone said “Let’s spray crops,” “drop bombs,” “survey,” “move mail,” and more. The marketplace found the “why” that justified investment in the “what.”

Is Gartner’s a rule? Not really. It is a series of labels or categorizations. Through its prism, the viewer is able to perceive the world of possibilities with a bit more order, organization, and hopefully clarity. There are numerous other paradigms that one might as or more compelling.

A similar attempt to label and describe (lens) is Moore’s law. See Salim Ismail and a Life-Changing Seminar (May 2015); The Running Man from Pensacola, Florida (July 2015); and Everybody Wake Up! (October 2024). 

And yet another is Turing’s Test (lens) see X-Files or Poltergeist? (November 2024).

These are no more absolute than generations. At any moment, we are living in a world in which some technology or innovation is in each of these Gartner periods. Remember that AI is not “an” invention or “a” tool, but is a new pathway to many inventions and tools. 

As various innovations travel parallel and describable paths, we are confronted with multiple choices regarding our adaptation to or of various potentials. Burdened with our own day-to-day, we are all presented with different opportunities which may each be the next iPhone or Edsell.

Tom Shullman wrote in Dead Poet's Society (Harvest Moon Publishing, 2001):

"There’s a time for daring and there’s a time for caution, and a wise man understands which is called for."
Are we wise, or are we simply pretending to be?

These postulates, like Gartner's, Turings, and Moores, bring us a touchstone. The human mind is prone to touchstone references because familiarity and brevity are comforting. The process labels help us to discuss and comprehend difficult and complex challenges. We are then able to make shorthand references to concepts, conflicts, or predictions in a way that is comforting to our own self-perception and reassuring. It also affords us the luxury of comparisons that aid our comprehension and communication.

In that process, we face the very real potential for the influence of human bias and other imperfections. That said, we are reasonably comfortable that the processors in your head are far more complex than the computers that are being engaged to emulate human thought. They will have advantages in speed and focus but will remain tools for our deployment and use.

The airplane did not end the world as they knew it at the turn of the 20th century. Neither will computers and their programs be the end of the world for us. These innovations are harbingers of change. The cheese will move. And yet, you and I will still be here performing the human function as these tools aid us in that enterprise.


Prior posts on AI and Robotics
Will the Postal Service be our Model for Reform? (August 2014)
Attorneys Obsolete (December 2014)
How Will Attorneys (or any of us Adapt? (April 2015)
Salim Ismail and a Life-Changing Seminar (May 2015)
The Running Man from Pensacola, Florida (July 2015)
Will Revolution be Violent (October 2015)
Ross, AI, and the new Paradigm Coming (March 2016)
Chatbot Wins (June 2016)
Robotics and Innovation Back in the News (September 2016)
Universal Income - A Reality Coming? (November 2016)
Artificial Intelligence in Our World (January 2017)
Another AI Invasion, Meritocracy? (January 2017)
Strong Back Days are History (February 2017)
Nero May be Fiddling (April 2017)
The Coming Automation (November 2017)
Tech is Changing Work (November 2018)
Hallucinating Technology (January 2019)
Inadvertently Creating Delay and Making Work (May 2019)
Artificial Intelligence Surveillance (August 2020)
Robot in the News (October 2021)
Safety is Coming (March 2022)
Metadata and Makeup (May 2022)
Long Term Solutions (June 2022)
Intelligence (November 2022)
You're Only Human (May 2023).
AI and the Latest (June 2023)
Mamma Always Said (June 2023)
AI and the Coming Regulation (September 2023)
AI Incognito (December 2023)
The Grinch (January 2024)
AI in Your Hand (April 2024)
AI and DAN (July 2024)
AI is a Tool (October 2024)
Rights for the Toaster (October 2024)
Everybody Wake Up! (October 2024)
First What is it? (November 2024)
X-Files or Poltergeist? (November 2024)
Is Gartner Helpful on AI? (December 2024).