The coming age of robotics has been featured in this blog repeatedly. It is a subject that scares many, but about which a significant minority knows little. I am struck, when the subject arises, how many people are willfully unaware of the potentials and prognostications for artificial intelligence, robotics, and other technology-driven changes that are on our horizon. Thus, I continue to bring the subject to the table in hopes more will be "woke."
For prior posts on the technology coming, see Attorneys Obsolete (December 2014), Can I get an Uber Lyft (November 2014), What of the Buggy Whip Makers (March 2018), Ross, IA, and the New Paradigm Coming (March 2016), and How will Attorneys (or any of us) Adapt (April 2015).
FoxNewsBusiness recently reported The robots are here: New, unheard-of job titles signal growing occupations in the digital age. This describes ongoing automation in the "supply chain" which essentially refers to the processes and procedures through which goods are delivered in our economy. Consumers, for their own use or for integration into some other product, order goods. Until the end product ultimately reaches the end consumer, intermediate consumers are also suppliers, cogs in a machine or links in a chain.
The profitability of the end supplier (who sells to the individual consumer is obviously dependent upon the costs involved in the obtention of components and elements incorporated into that end product. But, to some extent, the profitability of each supplier of any component or element is also influenced by the supply chain costs associated with its own obtention of components or elements.
Therefore, there is significant interest in building efficiencies and effectiveness into the supply chain process. The FoxNews article tells us that the pursuit of such cost savings is responsible for recent deployment of "the latest generation of robotics and automation." It reports that "72 percent of enterprises use robotic automation and usage is on the rise at a record pace." This is an example of market forces evolving to lower costs so as to compete in the marketplace.
That change is occurring is neither news nor newsworthy. Change is an inevitability. Those who refuse or fail to grasp that are in serious trouble as the world evolves around them. They will find themselves standing on the steamboat landing of yesterday waving at their peers departing on the self-driving vehicle of today. The dreams of yesterday come to fruit persistently, though there are many that fail, many also succeed. While our specific predictions (Arch 2018) may or may not come true, progress and change are inevitable.
There is significant disagreement about whether the advent of technology will result in a decrease in employment. There are a variety of opinions regarding how economies should respond to any job loss, see No Driver Wins a Race to the Bottom (April 2018). The deployment of technology-based disruptors such as Uber, Airbnb, Amazon, Netflix, and Travelocity certainly delivered value to consumers. They each also resulted in an impact on established "brick and stick" economic segments.
Netflix delivered a technological software blow to the previously ubiquitous video store like Blockbuster. However, robotics has delivered a second blow with very intelligent and interactive vending machines (robots) dealing a hardware blow. The RedBox is a robotic challenger that avoids the overhead expenses (floor space and employees) that challenged the sticks and bricks model of Blockbuster. Netflix was seen inevitably leading to the death of the DVD. But, while Blockbuster stores could not compete with that software, it turns out (for now) that robots can.
Amazon is having a notable similar effect on retail stores. Whether it is eventually equally profound remains to be seen (according to a March 6, 2019 post, there is now only one Blockbuster store in business; as yet, Amazon's ascendance has left many retailers struggling but still markedly viable). Though travel websites abound, there remain some travel agents. Despite ride-shares, taxis remain a way of life. Change is happening, but the degree of overall impact in various market segments remains diverse.
The FoxNews story denotes the current environment as another "chapter of the Industrial Revolution." It sees robotics and other technology not as a new revolution, but as a continuation of the one that brought us the "steam engine innovation." It claims that there will be massive job loss: "75 million lost job roles" as a result of AI and robotics. However, the good news is that it also projects "an addition of 133 million job roles, netting 58 million."
The upshot of this perspective and prognostication is not that work will disappear, but that work will at least change. It relies for this projection, in part, on the evolution of Amazon, and the growth of jobs there. While that may signal or evidence the evolution of job tasks, there is also the potential that much of the job growth discussed is about market share growth and the corresponding declines in stick and brick retailers.
However, the FoxNews story cites an MIT study indicating that "job titles" are already changing and evolving. This is indicia that new occupations or vocations are dawning. It notes that the growth in job opportunities is more profound in these new titles. And, technology is spawning previously "unheard-of job titles." That is, there are new demands for human effort, and the methods or labels we have traditionally used to describe work are not descriptive. Thus, new labels are contrived and applied.
The report predicts that there will continue to be declines in "task or manual process-based" jobs. Some, it predicts, are "likely to disappear in the next few years," much like the Blockbuster. While it seems unlikely that hotels or taxis will be driven from existence, there is little doubt that Uber, Lyft, and AirBnB are affecting their respective bottom lines. And the same erosion is likely in the realm of other jobs and work titles.
Fox contends that as employment declines in some titles, new titles such as “mechatronics” will provide new opportunities. This title "combines mechanics and systems design." And, unfortunately, there is a limited population ready to step into these roles. There is a "skills gap," that some characterize instead as "a chasm." That is not entirely because of the change in economies and technologies. But change is exacerbating it, as is the speed of the marketplace change. As illustrated by the reference to our industrial revolution, change has been persistent for centuries.
What has changed in that regard, according to Fox, is that we increasingly need people with primary skills and a breadth of ancillary skills. It notes that "skills like programming and technology must marry human skills such as critical thinking, emotional intelligence and creativity." The implication is that the employees of tomorrow will have to be multifaceted. The opportunities for uni-focused employees will be the most challenged by technology.
The real upshot of the story however is different. While it is suggested that various skills are likely to be important, as well as human diversification, possession of such skills may not be your best hope of success.
The most important attribute for success tomorrow? According to this analysis, it is "the ability to keep learning and adapting." The worker of today, and even more so of tomorrow, will be the worker who is able to "switch occupational categories and learn new skills." There will be less room for those who become stuck in their own furrow and fail to observe the rest of the field around themselves.
In short, the technology revolution is insidious and relentless. In The Terminator Kyle Reese tells Sarah Connor:
"That Terminator is out there. It can't be reasoned with, it can't be bargained with...it doesn't feel pity of remorse or fear...and it absolutely will not stop. Ever."
While that is the stuff of Hollywood science fiction, perhaps replace "that Terminator" with "change" and the message crystallizes:
"Change 'is out there. It can't be reasoned with, it can't be bargained with...it doesn't feel pity of remorse or fear...and it absolutely will not stop. Ever.'"
Change is coming for you. You could elect not to adapt, and instead freeze in your tracks and accept your fate out of fear, obstinance, or ignorance. Or, you can be woke, check your assumptions and doubts at the door, and open your mind to what the future may bring to you, your profession, your industry, and your community. You can focus yourself on how you will "keep learning and adapting."
The beauty of all of this is that much of the success or failure will be within our own control We will play a large role in our destiny. Companies will evolve and change, or they will diminish and fade away. Similarly, each of us will likewise be part of tomorrow or elect to remain in today. Where we will end up will depend in large part on whether we elect to grow or stick our heads in the sand.
