I have been reflecting on progress, technology, evolving employment models, and the future of both employment and workers' compensation. On March 23, I will participate on a panel discussing these at the Workers' Compensation Research Institute (WCRI). Some recent posts in this vein include The Gig Economy, Can it Be Socialized (March 2018), What of the Buggy Whip Makers (March 2018), and What is an Employee? (March 2018).
I was reminded of predictions when I received an advertisement for an "innovative" new product; but, more on that later. The innovation advertisement made me think about some of the great progress quotes that missed the mark.
The New York Times is credited
with
A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth's atmosphere.A Deca Records executive supposedly told the Beatles manager in 1962
The Beatles have no future in show business.Orville Wright once said
No flying machine will ever fly from New York to Paris.Thomas Watson, President of IBM, predicted
I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.Ken Olsen, Founder of Digital Equipment Corporation in 1977 predicted
There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.The Editor of Prentiss Hall publishing in 1957 predicted
I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.Bill Gates famously predicted in 1989
We will never make a 32-bit operating system.
They were not just wrong, but spectacularly so. These were all made by people with great access to information, experience, and insider access to developments. They just got it wrong.
Just a few business gaffs illustrate some very successful people failing to appreciate their opportunities or the future. Western Union turned down the chance to buy the telephone from Alexander Bell in 1876, seeing no future in it. Back in 1998 the creators of what became Google tried to sell their brainchild to Yahoo and were similarly turned down. Kodak invented the digital camera in 1975. However, the company did not perceive opportunity, but a threat to their existing business. So Kodak ignored and resisted it. Blockbuster Video had the chance to buy Netflix in 2000 but found the $50 million price "ludicrous."
Blockbuster disappeared and Netflix is now worth about $140 billion; the telegraph is a historical reference and the telephone is ubiquitous. Google thrives, while Yahoo struggles to even exist. And, seemingly every digital device has a camera, while Kodak was devastated only to claw its way back after the near death of the camera and film paradigm.
The leaders who misread those opportunities are not alone. A famous billionaire is said to have passed on an early opportunity to buy a controlling interest in Microsoft. A technology guru at Atari is said to have passed on the chance to obtain a significant share of Apple, declining to buy in for the relatively paltry sum of $50,000.
The point is that some very successful people have failed over the years to accurately predict the future. And, we sit today and envision our own predictions of the future. We think we know what is coming, what form it will take, and what change it will affect on our lives. But history suggests that we may not, as a species, be all that great at predicting things. Sure, we may individually prevail and succeed, but there seems a greater likelihood of missing the mark than hitting it.
This returns me to the advertisement I recently received. This company uses a cellulose material that it produces by breaking down the fibers in trees. The material is flattened and smoothed by passing through a series of rollers. Information can be represented on this material similarly to what we see on computer or smartphone screens. Once the material is impressed with this information, it requires no electricity or Internet connection for ongoing use. The user interface is very simple, requiring only a finger to browse. This company will market the end result under the name "book." And, they are claiming it is an "innovative tool."
Say what you want, but I doubt the idea will take off. Who would go to all that trouble when the world is at our fingertips in the world wide web?
But, possibly it will be a huge innovation and people will buy these "books." Just because we may doubt people will eschew their Kindle for such an "innovation" does not mean it is destined to fail. After all, to keep us in perspective, Orville Wright also said
If we all worked on the assumption that what is accepted as true is really true, there would be little hope of advance
Maybe this "book" thing will be something after all? At WCRI tomorrow (February 2018), we (@denisezoe @ckingdollar @stevenATolman @John_Ruser) will be discussing technology, artificial intelligence, and how work and workers' compensation will be affected. That the world is changing is not debatable; however, how the world is changing is challenging us all. Will we be more prescient than the cited examples? Or, perhaps we will make equally spectacular gaffs? Me, I'm buying one of these "books" just in case.
