Just what are the predictions? It was beautiful weather last week in Boston as I visited for the WCRI Annual Conference. A whirlwind trip in which I spent 28 short hours on the ground in Boston. I had blogged on Doubts About Predictions (March 2018) before departing. In fairness, I had written that post a few days earlier and posted Wednesday in anticipation of Boston. By the time I posted, the weather folks were predicting a weatherpocalypse in the northeast. Panic set in. As a result, some Floridians could not make it to Boston.
Boston news explained the failed prediction afterward. It appears that the air was dry and that made the snowfall not materialize as predicted. Some may struggle to understand how humidity would be difficult to predict in our modern world. Others may just wonder how many lives were affected by the failure? One news outlet reported 5,700 flights canceled, and others reported various significant flight delays. It was a significant weather event, which disrupted many plans. But, in the end, the weather was beautiful. The predictions failed, the predictors failed, and people were affected. This, is despite the technology and science at the predictor's disposal.
As I sat on stage Friday with Denise Algire of Albertsons Companies, Charlie Kingdollar of General Reinsurance, Steve Tolman of the Massachusetts AFL-CIO, and our host John Ruser of WCRI, I reflected on predictions. We were there to make them and to discuss trends. And, as the last presenters on the schedule, we were there to bring the conference in for a landing.
Clearly, the weather example illustrates that even the most analytical or scientific may miss something. The fact is that a great many factors influence outcomes. Perhaps so many that we cannot be expected to appreciate them all? If that is true for science and weather, perhaps it is true for all predictions?
But there were takeaways from Friday.
From Ms. Algire's perspective, retail is changing. There will be challenges there and elsewhere with aging workers and changing consumer demands. She predicts a continuing trend toward automation, particularly as it relates to heavy and unskilled work. Ms. Algire's is a "glass half full" perspective. She concedes that the technological evolution in which we are engaged will result in lost jobs. She contends, however, that this very technology will likewise create new jobs. Her conclusion is that work will remain throughout, but the nature of that work will change.
From Mr. Kingdollar's perspective, the understanding of risk will be challenged. He described challenges that exist today in assessing risk and charging an appropriate premium to underwrite that risk. He discussed nano-tubes and other advances, explaining that technology is expanding rapidly and broadly in our world. He cautioned that we may not fully understand all of the implications that such developments bring. Is it possible that there is a "next asbestos" on the horizon, a product promoted for its virtues and strengths, but which may have an unexpected and unpredictable risk? His perspective is that risk management and insurance will change.
Mr. Tolman focuses on the people involved. He laments that technology will mean the loss of jobs. He intimates that business, and those who own it, should be compelled in some way to share their success with workers, or perhaps even forced to retain employees despite technology. As an example, he lamented the advent of ordering kiosks at fast food restaurants. One point that resonated was his own personal discomfort with that paradigm and the suggestion that many of us may struggle to accept change. Our resulting loyalty to legacy retail (or legacy anything) may impact the predicted adoption of automation and somewhat preserve a modicum of jobs, to preserve customers that are less adaptive.
There was seemingly unanimous agreement that change is imminent and that it will be significant in breadth and scope. The disagreements among the panel were primarily about how markets and people will react to that change. There was mention of a growing socialism, a perceived need for government to "take care of" people. That is not new, Universal Income - A Reality Coming? (November 2016) addressed some of that theory. There is a persistent worldview held by some that society has a responsibility to clothe and sustain those who either do not or cannot support themselves. Those holding this worldview seems unable or unwilling to accept that some hold other views.
As technology evolves, occupations and jobs will be lost. It is possible that others will emerge, and people will shift to new vocational challenges. It is possible that some in the older generation will find the idea of "retraining" more challenging and less attractive. It is possible, therefore, that some of the impacts of this work evolution will be absorbed in workplace attrition, in which older workers evolve out of the workforce as younger, tech-savvy (even tech-dependent) workers and their acceptance evolve in.
I am 100% comfortable with several predictions. First, change will be persistent. The modern-day Luddite among us needs to take heed. Second, vision must be honed. We each must focus on where we are today, our skills, and where we are personally headed; the gig economy, technology, and artificial intelligence will change our work. If we fail to accept and evolve, we (occupationally) could become extinct. Finally, there will be an impact on us all. Some will see that in our struggles to accept and adapt new skills and knowledge. Others will see that in their failure to do so.
The government will be compelled to decide the level of socialism to which to descend. Though America long ago embraced socialism, there remain some strong capitalistic elements. Though socialism has gained a significant foothold, resistance remains. The tech evolution may add significantly to the volume of unemployed (ready, able, and eager, but struggling for opportunity), underemployed (working, but not in a position that maximizes return on particular education or skills), or unemployable (those who cannot work). In effect, it is possible there will be more who struggle to support themselves in days to come. Still, others who support themselves may yet struggle for personal fulfillment.
Each of us will make decisions. How we will individually perceive and prepare for the changes will be among them. But, also important will be how we will collectively address the challenges that change may bring, to our economy, to our neighbors, and to our society. The individual and collective challenges will be significant. One hopes they will not be insurmountable.
Thanks again to WCRI for their effort in addressing this difficult subject, and to those with whom I was honored to share the stage.
