We live each hurricane season with the dread of the tropics. We all enjoy the converse, what I call Respite Season from December 1 through the following May 1 each year. It is comforting to think that there is a time when there will be no storms. That said, we have some pretty significant storms periodically during Respite ©2023, see It's That Time Again (April 2023). Some check the National Hurricane Center page daily through summer and fall.
Those who do are familiar with the graphic map that provides those moments of dread (when an "X" appears) and sometimes corresponding moments or either relief or terror.
When the "X" appears, it usually signals a potential for a tropical event (storm or hurricane). We begin to watch them as they parade across the map often changing color from yellow to red, which signifies the potential or probability for formation of a named storm.
Once a storm is established, one can click on the "X" and see what the Center's prediction is for the storm path. Thus the potential reactions. If it is pointed at you, perhaps terror, and if it is pointed at some other poor soul then relief. Not a Floridian alive can likely say they have "never" paid any attention to the "cone."
The Center is not able to predict the exact point of landfall until such a threat is imminent. Earlier, it will publish a "cone" or area of probability for the storm path. Some jokingly refer to this as the "cone of uncertainty," because it can be very broad initially and its coverage can shift, even back and forth, in the days before landfall.
Being "in the cone" is worrisome and signals that it is time for preparations. Windows are often boarded, items are brought indoors, and evacuation is considered. The "cone" and the projected storm strength are factors in many Floridian decisions and perhaps feed our anxieties. But - it is better to know and to prepare than to be surprised.
In addition to the "cone" of probability and the storm strength, many also consider the potential for flooding. The maps from the Center always provide graphic predictions of where there are flood and surge concerns. That helps residents think of dangers beyond the wind. There is no telling whether wind or surge will be a particular resident's greatest concern.
Building on our familiarity with the long-serving "cone," the Center will begin using a new version in August 2024. This is destined to arrive on our consciousness just as the peak hurricane season begins. This will provide greater information for the oft-forgotten hurricane watchers - those who live inland in Florida. Hurricanes and storms are not just for coastal residents.
While The Palm Beach Post notes there are coastal concerns, it says this "new cone will add tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for interior counties in the path of the storm." This will be an informative graphic that includes various threats to the path of a tropical system.
The Center provided an example (below is not a real notification, you are not in the "cone," please do not stress - yet).
On this example, the broader implications of such systems may be more readily discerned. Too many forget that storms can bring inches of rain. As the creeks, streams, and rivers strive to drain that water back into the gulf or ocean, they can become swollen. Bridges and low roads can become dangerous. There are flood risks even in areas that receive little or no rain.
With this new graphic, perhaps there comes greater information and preparation. There is recognition here that storms present potential problems for all Floridians. In that vein, the critical point is preparedness. We have had a warning in 2024, see A Harbinger (May 2024). No one can doubt that threats are always a potential and disasters do strike.
The time for preparing has been upon you for months. But, in the current relative calm, time remains. Make your plan now and be prepared for the threat to home and business. Talk about when, how, and where you might evacuate. Think about how you would preserve life, limb, and business in such an event.
And be prepared for the new and improved "cone of uncertainty," and the increased information that will be conveyed. There is value in information, and this new tool provides significantly more than we have become accustomed to.
