In a now-famous scene from Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back (LucasFilm 1980), our protagonist is self-assured and our hero, Yoda, is not sure.
Luke: I won't fail you. I'm not afraid.Yoda : You will be. You... will... be.
Technology is changing our world. It is coming at us in various forms. Perhaps it is none of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: "conquest, war, famine and death." Or, perhaps it is each of these in some regard? We have a great retrospective vantage on technology. In around 904 A.D., there is evidence of a new gunpowder-fired projectile weapon. In 1440, the Guttenburg press revolutionized the written word. Technology is not new. Change is not new.
The last century has brought amazing change. Significant change. Air travel was first achieved only in 1903. History and Lessons (October 2022). The first programmable computer was in the 1930s; the first smartphone 1992, the first hand-held GPS 1989. Electric cars, also recent. I have known people who saw all of these. The bottom line is that change is nothing new. And, us old dogs can well describe to you the feelings we have repeatedly had as someone moved our cheese. We have all adapted to technology, change, and innovation.
I once labored in the field of document production. It was a discovery factory at a large corporation. We were very efficient in our day, but the process is laughable in retrospect. I met a lady there who started her career arc in a "typing pool," see Will Revolution be Violent (October 2015); The Coming Automation (November 2017); Tech is Changing Work (November 2018). Today there are doubts about our future. This time could be the "big one," anxiety is natural and predictable.
That "typing pool" example is an excellent illustration. The lady who had come from that vocation had evolved into a very capable and able paralegal. She had eschewed law school because of the financial and time commitments but would have made an excellent attorney. She had evolved. At the time, I appreciated only the arc of her evolution and her survival of an innovative technology, personal computers. I failed at the moment to understand that arc is a continuum. Today, we see the next wave hit the beach and it impairs that very profession, paralegals. The evolution is persistent.
The reality is that in an economic evolution, there are likely improvements in each generation. We see tools come to us that aid our efforts. Those tools come to shorten and ease our tasks, but in the end, they mean there is less need for us. Or less of us are needed generally. Fortunately, that has not been instant reaction to tech, but it has been persistent. Jobs have disappeared over time and new vocations have replaced it.
That discovery factory in which I worked no longer exists. The technology of high-speed scanners, software portable document format, and optical character recognition has replaced the many hands that used to duplicate records and the eyes that searched, categorized, and organized them. But, in fairness, that was decades ago. No one there was laid off as these tech changes came. They were empowered by this new tech. They mastered it, employed it, and leveraged it. They quit hiring new help, and over time they eliminated their jobs.
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) addressed the potential that AI will take away our jobs. It reports that today there is anxiety about artificial intelligence, "AI anxiety." But, is that rational or reasonable? See You're only Human (May 2023). They fear the change. I confidently intone
Langham: I won't fail you. I'm not afraid.
What would Yoda tell me? Well, you get the point. The BBC suggests there is little to fear. It provides examples of the labor force and their feelings about AI. They are tentative in part, but express feelings of adequacy and confidence. For today. One noted not that she cannot be replaced, essentially that “I don’t think the quality of the work that I’m producing could be matched by a machine just yet.” Ah, the "yet." She is confident in today, but less so in tomorrow. She sees the AI evolving and changing to her potential detriment.
The question is not about having skills. The inquiry is regarding the relevance of skills. And for judges, the future may not look so bright. There are computers that effectively judge credibility now. There are algorithyms that write prose with great effect. See Ross AI and the New Paradigm Coming (March 2016); Chatbot wins 160,000 Legal Cases (June 2016). There is no guarantee that the future will include judges, attorneys, or paralegals.
So, are the autobots coming for our jobs? The BBC reports that some prognosticators estimate "AI could replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs." That and other news coverage has some of us asking ourselves questions. One report concluded that about 30% of us are "worried." The tech has evolved from replacing the rote and repetitive (assembly, production, etc.) to replacing the creative, the collaborative, the more esoteric. That the targets of the tech have changed is simply semantics. The fact of change is not different or new.
The BBC offers no counterpoint. There is no "rage against the machine" advice. We are not provided any roadmap, plan, or suggestion on confronting Cyberdyne, the T-1, or other futuristic threats. There is no plan to defeat them. The suggestion, instead is that we ascribe to Senator James E. Watson‘s “If you can’t lick ’em, jine ’em.” And thus, perhaps our path is laid. We need to find ways to go beyond welcoming our new overlords and find ways to collaborate with them. There is room for them to make our worlds simpler now, to ease our labors. And, in fact, to make us better.
The point is to leverage technology. We in this space have seen the benefit of that. If we had not adopted and adapted e-filing, video hearings, e-service, and more in the early twenty-first century, how would we have survived the pandemic? We survived and thrived because the technology was not new. We thrived because we had changed before and adapted. We were ready. Is the next innovation any less important to us?
We are free to feel anxiety and harbor fear. That is natural and human. But, dreading it is not going to either change it or change us. There will be change. The typing pool is gone, and other tasks are likely to disappear. I have seen a hyper "spell checker" that goes way beyond the spelling of yore, and grammar of yesterday, and makes far broader writing suggestions. It can adapt its suggestions based on the responses of the user. It learns. Rudimentary AI undoubtedly, but AI nonetheless. Computers are already studying us. The future is now.
Anxiety and fear will not prevent technology. Like Christmas came in The Grinch (Universal, 1966), it will come anyway. The Grinch could not stop it by purloining the "Who Feast" and other accouterment. He expressed both surprise and wonder. He expressed failing comprehension. And, as he looked on in wonder, Christmas came anyway. Get over the anxiety, technology is coming anyway. There is no amount of denial or doubt that will forestall or delay it. Find a way to embrace it, to use it, and to benefit. It is the best path, time and time again.
And, have no fear. In the end, AI will not be any more perfect than we are. See Hallucinating Technology (January 2019) and Only Human (April 2023). We will have challenges, and tech will enable us. We will adapt as will the technology. We will need it, and it will always need us. The future will come whether we are ready or not. That said, why couldn't the next revolution have been that flying car they have been promising me for decades? Well, one can still hope.
