There is a tendency we share. We all seem to question where we are, and how we are doing. I have gotten a fair bit of recent feedback from OJCC customers. Some feel they are adjusting well to the COVID-19 world. Some see challenges, and others opportunities. Some perceive that their workload is increasing, others not so much. These conversations have led to questions like "How is the OJCC dealing with the increased filings?" That led to running some numbers.
In short, the Florida OJCC has yet to see filing increases that are susceptible to being chronologically related to COVID-19. While there are those in the marketplace who expect filings and claims to increase, the data at this time does not support that such an expansion has begun. The analysis that follows looks at only three metrics, the rate at which petitions for benefits are filed, the overall rate of documents being electronically filed, and the rate of new cases coming into the litigation system. And, for the sake of simplicity, I provide pictures to illustrate the trends.
Petition filing volumes decreased markedly after 2002-03. That downward trend continued, with a slight increase interruption in 2008-09, through 2015-16. Since 2016, petition volumes have been increasing generally, as illustrated in this graph.
Similarly, the efficacy and convenience of the e-JCC electronic filing system has facilitated easy filing. The expense of postage and paper is largely behind us in Florida workers' compensation litigation. Though not illustrating marked increases, the volume of electronically filed documents has also trended generally upwards in recent years. As electronic filing has been mandatory for a decade, that growth is not from increasing acceptance of the electronic paradigm, but represents growth in activity.
There are those who anticipated and even expected the litigation filings to increase in the course of COVID-19. Some speculated that job uncertainty, challenges with a return to work, exposure, and more would drive increased filings. There is no knowing whether any of this will cause future filing changes. It is noteworthy that the OJCC is s litigation system, not a claims system. Thus, there might be a delay between any changes in claims, and the effects on the litigation of those claims. But, what does the data available today tell us?
The filing rate for petitions demonstrated a continuing upward trend in the third quarter of 2020 (the State operates on a fiscal year that begins July 1, so the third quarter of 2020 is January, February, and March). While the rate of increase in 2020 is not as notable as in 2019, the trend over the third quarter was to increase.
When only March is considered, however, the filing rate for that month in 2020 is decreased about 2% compared to 2019. This is noteworthy because the world was "normal" to a large extent in January and February. The first U.S. diagnosis was not until late January, according to the New England Journal of Medicine.
The petition filings for April 2020 demonstrate a much more pronounced decrease. The total for that month is well below that of the same month in 2018 or 2019, and antithetical to the previously identified trend upward for the third quarter. The red trend line in the graph below projects where growth might have been anticipated to be, if not for the 23% decrease in petition filing in April 2020. Fewer petitions, not more, have been filed recently.
A similar analysis of the total volume of electronically filed documents in e-JCC demonstrates similar results. The overall filings for the third quarter of 2020 demonstrate continued increases in electronically filed documents. The red trend line is very similar to the predicted growth for the quarter. One might conclude the third quarter overall filing rate is consistent with growth one might have predicted based on the consistencies of prior year growth.
But, in March, as with petitions, the overall filing volume is not quite that which might be expected or anticipated. The filings do not demonstrate a decrease per se for March, but a "flattened curve," if you will. The volume did not decrease, but March did not see the growth rate that would have been predicted.
In April, similar to the petition data, the overall document filing rate was markedly lower than expected. The change in Petition filing was a downturn of 23% for April. the overall filing downturn is only -11%. This suggests that while fewer new issues (petitions) are coming into the litigation system, the litigation pace and volumes are more consistent overall, despite showing a decrease in overall volumes.
Thus, the third quarter (Jan, Feb, Mar) PFB filing volumes are up but at a lower rate than they increased in 2019. The figures for March indicate a small decrease that must be considered in light of the growth in January and February (demonstrated in the increase for the Third Quarter overall). The filings for April demonstrate a marked decline against 2019 and even 2018. Work pace is thus, likely slowing overall.
Petitions may be a valid measure of the intensity of litigation. That conclusion must be tempered with the fact that any petition might contain a single issue (e.g. "change in physician") or multiple issues (thus, PFB volume cannot be said to be a perfect barometer of activity). Another valid measure of litigation is the rate at which New Cases enter the litigation process. The figures for the third quarter (Jan, Feb, Mar) 2020 demonstrate growth in the filing rate for new cases. The increase to 8,202 is not quite consistent with the 4% growth rate in 2019, but is an increase nonetheless.
Petitions may be a valid measure of the intensity of litigation. That conclusion must be tempered with the fact that any petition might contain a single issue (e.g. "change in physician") or multiple issues (thus, PFB volume cannot be said to be a perfect barometer of activity). Another valid measure of litigation is the rate at which New Cases enter the litigation process. The figures for the third quarter (Jan, Feb, Mar) 2020 demonstrate growth in the filing rate for new cases. The increase to 8,202 is not quite consistent with the 4% growth rate in 2019, but is an increase nonetheless.
The New Case volume in March alone was also below the expectation based upon 2019. The New Case volume is, in this regard, similar to the illustration of PFB rates and overall filing rates. However, the trend remained "increase" albeit at a mere 1%.
Also similar to the petition filing rates, the New Cases in April 2020 are markedly below the 2019 figures, and well below the projected increase (red trend line). The decrease of 24% in New Cases is noteworthy because it is unexpected and as yet unexplained.
There is always room for discussion as to statistics and metrics. What the numbers seem to show is a notable change in filing rates over the last 60 days. The easy tendency will be to point at COVID-19 as the precipitating cause.
Some will note that lawyers and staff are currently striving (struggling?) with telecommuting. Others may understand the slackened pace by noting that the meetings with clients are harder to arrange (to obtain signatures or discuss claims). Still others may note that, at least anecdotally, they have struggled in some instances to obtain or keep a medical appointment (no doctor recommending specific treatment, no petition seeking to have a judge order that treatment). We are receiving reports of some workers unwilling to leave home secondary to the COVID-19 virus. Though those are anecdotal descriptions, it is possible that is a driving cause. In short, the decreases may be from effects on law firms, on clients, or both.
Some will note that lawyers and staff are currently striving (struggling?) with telecommuting. Others may understand the slackened pace by noting that the meetings with clients are harder to arrange (to obtain signatures or discuss claims). Still others may note that, at least anecdotally, they have struggled in some instances to obtain or keep a medical appointment (no doctor recommending specific treatment, no petition seeking to have a judge order that treatment). We are receiving reports of some workers unwilling to leave home secondary to the COVID-19 virus. Though those are anecdotal descriptions, it is possible that is a driving cause. In short, the decreases may be from effects on law firms, on clients, or both.
There may be other causes or contributors to the reduction in filings. It is possible that some may be utterly unrelated to COVID-19. However, the figures today support Florida workers' compensation litigation is slowing, regardless of the metric selected for analysis. The figures are suggestive that the first half of 2021 (July through December) may likewise demonstrate diminished activity. The petition hearing deadline is 210 days, roughly 7 months. With fewer petitions and new cases entering the system in March and April, the activity six to seven months in the future (October-November) may be impacted.
More data is available in a recently produced video on the OJCC YouTube channel. This includes the volumes of settlements, stipulation orders, evidentiary hearings, continuances of mediation and final hearings, other hearings, and other orders. There is also indicia in these figures to support that telephonic mediation is answering the needs of our customers.
More data is available in a recently produced video on the OJCC YouTube channel. This includes the volumes of settlements, stipulation orders, evidentiary hearings, continuances of mediation and final hearings, other hearings, and other orders. There is also indicia in these figures to support that telephonic mediation is answering the needs of our customers.
