We close a year of change and challenge. We face a future of uncertainty and change. We are fools if we do not periodically consider and contemplate our past, present, and future.
My grandfather was born in 1903 on a farm in rural Indiana. That state, and much of the rest of North America, had been divided with imaginary lines. That all began just over 240 years ago with the Land Ordinance of 1785, which standardized the measure and description of geography. This process established "a cadastral grid."
Yes, America is divided into a great many little square boxes. Land is categorized into states, counties, and townships. The townships are 6 miles on each side, so 36 square miles. Each of those square miles is a "section," which is 640 acres.
With an amazing lack of creativity, those are divided into "quarter sections," which are 160 acres each. And, to be consistent in the blaise, those are divided into "quarter quarter" sections that are 40 acres each. That is where the old adage of "40 acres and a mule" comes from.
If you want to experience this property survey first-hand, travel to rural Indiana (and a great many other agricultural meccas), and you can actually drive the squares. Roads have been laid out in these places, and they are literally a mile apart (sections), with one of them often named "Base Line," which delineates the centrality of that road.
In 1930, there were family farms of 40 acres, but 80 acres was likely more prevalent. In 1930, "more than 11 million Americans worked on farms," about 21% of the working population. The first tractors had come to agriculture in 1868, but the first gasoline-powered tool came in 1887, with a production run of "six of the machines."
There were other innovators. Case entered the market in 1894, followed by Hart-Parr, Ford, and more. "After 1910, gasoline-powered tractors were used extensively in farming." Extensive, but also expensive.
For many, their access to mechanization came later. In 1923, the venerable Farmall entered the market, a "revolutionary design that will change farming forever" that actually "can replace horses." The International Harvester company was producing 200 McCormick-Deering Farmall tractors daily by 1930. And yet, not every farmer could afford one.
Pause there to consider the timing. 1868 to 1887 (19 years), to 1894 (7 years), to 1910 (16 years), to 1923 (13 years), to 1930 (7 years). Not exactly an overnight cataclysm. Gasoline tractors did not change the world in a day, a year, or even a decade. They did, however, change the world.
The tractor brought leverage. One person with a tractor could do much more than with a horse. And the tractor never got tired (though maintenance was required) and did not need to be fed, watered, and rested. And soon, the age of the tenant farmer and the 40-acre farm was quickly over. By 1950, the average farm was 205 acres, and by 1969 it was 400 acres (over half a section).
The result? First, there were many unemployed "farm hands," physical laborers transitioning from working in agriculture. They sought other work. See Yesterday (November 2025). Next, there were fewer farmers as the mechanization increased, technology was further leveraged, and the farms grew.
There was a draw to other work, manufacturing, information, and more. Thus, there is history of vocational disruption on large scale (21% of American workers were farming). We all tend to underestimate our personal ignorance. This is the Dunning-Kruger Effect, see Langham, Unseen Influence: Unconscious Predisposition in Dispute Resolution (2025). To paraphrase, this "cognitive bias of illusory superiority" holds that "we don't know what we don't know."
Looking at opportunities with manufacturers in a vast spectrum, including tools, beverages, vehicles, petroleum, steel, and more, how many of those farmhands and farmers perceived doom and gloom in 1930, 1950, and after?
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Farm_Labor/fl_frmwk.php
But the key is Dunning-Kruger. Those farm-worker doomers and gloomers likely believed that they knew the expanse and breadth of occupation and vocation. They knew their world, in that era, but had no inkling of where their world was headed. Occupations have traditionally diminished and even disappeared. New vocations have similarly appeared and flourished. Economic evolution is not new.
How many of those farmhands in 1930 imagined they might be employed making cellular telephones, programming computers, running nuclear reactors, or even flying people around in an airplane? In short, those people knew their time, they knew what they knew, but they cannot be blamed for not knowing what they did not (yet) know.
That said, neither can you be blamed. You may see artificial intelligence and robotics, and experience fear. You perceive that tomorrow will be like today, that you possess all the knowledge of the future. You are staring into the abyss of what technology will do to the "normal" of today, without considering your own knowledge deficit about what the "normal" of tomorrow might include.
Can 2030, 2040, 2050, and beyond bring tools and processes that are, as yet, unknown and unimagined? The answer is clearly yes. It is the ultimate hubris to allow Dunning-Kruger to lure, dull, or scare you. The fact is that every generation has faced changes and challenges. Every generation always will. That AI and robotics will change the present and future is no different than the mechanization, technology, and other benefits of tractors (or even the wheel) to your forefathers.
So, get on with it. Weather the immediate challenge. AMD CEO Lisa Su recently told Fortune that young people should embrace the challenge. She offered this advice:
“Run towards the hardest problems—not walk, run—and that’s where you find the biggest opportunities, where you learn the most, where you set yourself apart, and most importantly, where you grow.”
That is great advice. Various leaders have exhorted action. General Gerard is credited with "march to the sound of the guns." Since then, U.S. Grant, William Sherman, George Custer, and George Patton have been credited with similar encouragements. You might argue that theme did not work so well for Custer, but it is often the exception that proves the rule.
These commanders essentially decried waiting for direction and advice and instead encouraged charging into the challenge. Not so different from Ms. Su's recent exhortation. Accept the fear, know there is much we do not and cannot know, and go chase your future anyway!
Or, you could crawl back into bed and put the covers over your head. See Buzzwords 2025 (December 2025). That won't solve or accomplish much, except perhaps you will remain fearful but be better rested?
