In 1978, Brother Bluto delivered an epiphany in Animal House (Universal Pictures):
"Seven years of college down the drain."
The line was sarcastic and irreverent. In those days, no one needed seven years to complete an undergraduate degree (but some did move that slowly). That made the joke funny, in a backhanded and enjoyable manner.
Nonetheless, many spend that long and more on their education. We see many individuals pursue degrees beyond the four-year bachelor's programs. A relevant analogy is lawyers, who spend three years in law school supplementing their college studies. Thus, seven years on the nose. Medical doctors typically spend eight. A PhD might take three to five years following undergraduate school, seven to nine overall.
An interesting aside, there are those who pursue multiple such degrees. People like Dr. Marjorie Eskay-Auerbach have always amazed me; she is a medical doctor and lawyer. I run into law professors who have both Juris Doctor and PhD degrees (at least 10 years of post-high school). Simply astounding from the perspective of invested time, intellect, dedication, and more.
These various degrees are investments. They are not cheap. Some contend a law degree will cost you $90,000 to $165,000. Medical school costs more like $238,420. The PhD is likely a similar investment. Most of that, for many students, is invested debt (they borrow money at significant rates and spend it on living and studying).
That money is a "sunk cost" and remains a resource drain in any event.
If a student has $90,000 in hand, that can safely yield $3,600 a year in interest. The $238,420 would similarly yield $9,536 a year. Thus, investing in education needs to yield a similar return. But there is additional cost to consider. The "opportunity cost." In other words, the doctor should make at least $9,536 per year more with that degree than in any vocation they could work in without it.
That is reasonably easy in the medical world. Demand for physicians is significant. And yet, early career positions have poor financial returns. A medical resident might make as little as $52,331. That is a figure for Alabama, where the average starting salary for a college graduate is $56,748. The average college graduate makes $4,417 more than the average medical doctor resident who invested $238,420 for the privilege.
As we ponder why there is a limited population of physicians, we might consider that. A young person invests $238,420 to qualify for a job, making less than those who choose to enter the workforce with a college degree? And, this insult is greater if they borrowed that $238,420, because they are facing the expense of interest on top of the insult of the salary.
Those who are investing in college, professional school, or a PhD are simultaneously limiting their participation in the workforce. Though they may earn some during school, they are pouring time into studies and deferring some level of economic benefit because of the earnings lost during that time.
That work over a college and law school career (7 years) or medical school (8 years) or PhD (9 years) will likely not be at a similar wage earned by those working full-time and on a career path. A high school graduate in Alabama might make $30,545. But a college student working part-time, 20 hours per week, will make less, perhaps $15,000. The college student is investing in a future, and deferring over $15,000 per year in earnings ($60,000 over four years).
Those four years of part-time, low-wage work are a significant loss. The 7, 8, or 9 years are merely greater examples. The entry-level work positions for new doctors, lawyers, and others may generate the same or less income than college graduates. Those people are investing when they pursue education.
There is an alternative. The high school graduates who choose a trade instead have a short-term potential to reach a living wage, $50,000 to $69,000 is cited as a reasonable expectation. This earning is more immediate and does not require the investment of years or dollars for tuition. Some will note that these high school graduates are starting at nearly the same level as the 8-year educated medical resident with $238,420 invested, perhaps in debt.
At the end of medical school, at 8 years, the new physician is about half a million dollars behind the person who elected a trade.
That economic reality is a force in decision-making. The numbers are stark and to some perhaps even shocking. And, they ignore that the medical student, the new medical resident, is facing the debt-service expense on the $238,420. The interest must be paid from the annual earnings mentioned above. With 8 years of trades experience, that worker is likely earning at least $60,000. And the comparison is valid for college graduates also.
After the minimum three-year residency for medical students, or three years of work as an associate attorney, the debt-burdened professional is still likely one-half million dollars behind the plumber, electrician, welder, or other tradesperson. Doctors reportedly do better after residency, earning an average of $250,000.
Most young lawyers struggle to gain that income level three years out of law school. This illustrates that economic recovery is possible, but not necessarily equitable. The supply and demand (lots of lawyers, not so many doctors) impact that with inherency.
By 15 years post-high school, the medical doctor has likely equalled the income total of the college graduate and the tradesperson. In a long career arc, the doctor is likely to do well financially. The work of a physician or attorney will involve stress, hours, and other challenges but will avoid some of the physicality (lifting, carrying, climbing). But this all merely illustrates that there are choices.
This series of thoughts was instigated by an Artificial Intelligence (AI) expert who, or is it "that" opined in August 2025 that "Students could end up 'throwing away' years of their lives, as technology is moving so quickly." He recommended against pursuing doctoral degrees as a path to "standing out" in the workplace and job market.
According to his analysis and other AI experts cited there, "undergraduate degrees have lost their payoffs thanks to AI." The next shoe to drop will be a similar devaluation of the benefits of "advanced schooling" for many. Despite the urge to blame AI, this same expert claims that "AI itself is going to be gone by the time you finish a PhD." No, AI will not be gone, but he means that the challenges of building, deploying, and adapting AI will be solved.
These experts are suggesting that there is a decreasing value represented by the investment in higher education. They are advocating for careful consideration of the cost-benefit analysis of education. Those who face a future career arc of 40 years, as they graduate from high school, should be cognizant, conscious, and deliberate about training, education, and debt.
The reader should know that Utopia is not Coming (October 2025). No one will ever take care of you like you would yourself. You owe it to yourself to be your own best advocate, advisor, and actuator.
Are we on the brink of the end of days as the prognosticators suggest? There will not come a day when boomers accept the word of a robot regarding illness, diagnosis, or treatment. You read it here first. But that day may come for the tech-ready iPhone generations that followed. That said, it is very likely that our daily lives and repairs by electricians, plumbers, air conditioning techs, and similar trades will remain human tasks regardless of consumer generation or age.
AI is indeed changing the world. It will undoubtedly alter our perceptions, exertions, and economics. Now is not the time to lament or fear, but a conscious, careful, and objective review of realistic cost-benefit is warranted and recommended. What are the probabilities of the choices you will make about training, education, and borrowing?
Make informed choices about that education investment. Carefully consider the opportunity costs and investment costs. You might be better off investing that $238,420 in the stock market than in an M.D., JD, or even that B.A.?
