Thursday, September 14, 2017

Harvey and Irma will be on Lists

Last Spring, I posted regarding the Atlantic Hurricane season, in hopes of spurring preparation. There is value in being prepared for storms, but every time you live through one of these you realize how unprepared you are. These are epic experiences, for which one can think and plan and prepare and yet be totally surprised by direction, location, duration, devastation and more. 

With the latest storm passed, our attention turns to those left in the path. They will each be affected by Irma to some degree. Some will not even realize as they live through the recovery, but one day will appreciate in retrospect how the preparation, storm, and aftermath impacted them. It will be a life-changing experience for many. 

The focus for most of us now is on those left in the wake. There will be many opportunities to help them. Some will contribute time and effort in big ways. I noted how some of them have in Because we Need it They Will Come. Others, perhaps, will have opportunities to help in smaller ways. I was moved recently to remind our OJCC team of how these events affect people. After I sent them an email, it occurred to me to make that a post because perhaps we all need to remember the people and the disruption to their lives. 

We also need to remember that people are the purpose of this agency. We are here to resolve and adjudicate issues that people cannot resolve themselves. People have disputes about injuries, treatment, return to work, and more. When they cannot resolve them, we mediate and adjudicate them. We listen to their evidence, evaluate conflicting opinions, and bring conclusion. Perhaps it behooves us to remember that people are the purpose of all our occupations, vocations, professions?

I for one am glad Irma is gone; Farewell Irma, I never Liked You. Irma was an event that will be among the worst we have experienced. It will also be an financially expensive event, both in the U.S. and across the Caribbean. In Time to Prepare, I restated the ten "worst" hurricanes according to the Weather Channel. Their focus was storms, and how they define "worst" is of course up to them. Time will tell if they believe Irma merits being on that list, but I predict it will. Regardless of "worst," it is destined to be among the most financially expensive. 

According to Axios, the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history are:
Hurricane Katrina $160b 
Hurricane Harvey (predicted) $85b
Hurricane Sandy $70.2b
Hurricane Andrew $47.8b
1998 Drought $42.4b
1993 Midwest Flooding $36.1b
Hurricane Ike $34.8b
2012 Drought $32.4b
1980 Drought $31.6b
Hurricane Ivan $27.1b

It is intriguing to me that the list does not have any earthquakes, blizzards, or tornadoes. Those are all compelling natural events. But the "costliest" are in large part due to wind and water (whether too much with flooding and surge, or too little with droughts).

WorkersCompensation.com reported Tuesday that insurers are breathing a sigh of relief regarding Hurricane Irma. There were prognostications last week that this killer storm might do $100b in damage, taking the number two spot on the list from the recent Hurricane Harvey landfall in Texas. However, it reports that the estimate are now only "between $20 and $40 billion." You know what they say, a billion here, a billion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money (an adaptation of a quote attributed to Everett Dirkson, correctly or not).

More recently, CNBC reported this week the J.P. Morgan conclusion that Irma will likely be the fifth costliest hurricane in U.S. history. They list the ten costliest as

Katrina $49.8b (2005)
Andrew $24.5b (1992)
Sandy $19.9b (2012)
Ike $14.0b (2008)
Wilma $12.5b (2005)
Charlie $9.4b (2004)
Ivan $8.9b (2004)
Hugo $7.3b (1989)
Rita $6.8b (2005)
Francis $5.7b (2004)

And, they predict that Irma will take her place in the "top 5," which will displace Hurricane Francis. There is little doubt that Harvey, less than a month ago in Texas, will take his place in that top 5 also and that Rita will likewise fall from the list.

Hurricane Wilma was the "most intense in the Atlantic basin," back in 2005, according to the SunSentinel. Recent news suggests Irma will take that distinction from Wilma. I read that list above and I recall watching those that hit Florida: Andrew, Wilma, Charlie, Ivan, Francis. I also note that Houston and vicinity experienced Ike, Rita, and now Harvey. Not that this diminishes any of the others on the list, or those that did not make the list, but there are some places that seem to be visited more often than others.

The statistics will bear out that these storms were big, dangerous, and life-changing. The statistics will become lists, and by whatever criteria the list-makers choose Harvey and Irma will be discussed and critiqued. They will be valued by the accountants, bankers, actuaries, and more. The "value" they assign the storms will be monetary. And, the rest of us can perhaps instead remember and remind of the more important human value, human cost, of these events.


In the end, our ability to deal with the aftermath of these and the persistent threat of those that will undoubtedly (someday in the far future we hope) follow, will lie in our ability to help others through this and those to come. People need you. They need a kind word, they need compassion, and they need a willing ear. There will be other needs, but these human needs are perhaps the most important. And, they can be provided absolutely free.