Steely Dan immortalized that lyric, in
Reelin' in the Years in 1972. It struck me as I was considering some
perspectives recently. The stanza from the song goes like this:
Your everlasting summer
You can see it fading fast
So you grab a piece of something
That you think is gonna last
You wouldn't know a diamond
If you held it in your hand
The things you think are precious
I can't understand
The song conveys various messages, and
the rhythm is catchy. It seems to me that the song is about how
different people have differing perspectives on things. What one values,
another does not. More than that though, can we understand someone else valuing
something which we do not?
The world is changing around us. Cities
are declaring
bankruptcy (everyone knows of Detroit, but there are others),
employees are renegotiating
benefits, the economy struggles along. Sure there is good economic news
some months and bad news other months, but employment and the future remain a
concern of Americans according to a recent Gallup
poll.
I got to thinking about this recently
when I read a news item about the next generation, the "millenials."
As an aging "baby-boomer" I guess my perspectives are flavored by
another age. We "boomers" are quickly going to fade from the fore and
become relics of the past, just as our predecessors did. Our kids, the
"Millenials," are the future. And, according to Time,
they do not necessarily have the same values that we are accustomed to. Theirs
is a different perspective, which will drive our economy. In fact, according to
Time, "by 2017 Millennials will have more buying power than any other
generation."
Some definition for perspective.
According to the Pew Foundation,
the following are relevant for consideration today, the "Silent Generation
(born 1928-1945)," the "Boomers (born 1946 – 1964)," then
"Generation X (1965 – 1976)" and the "Millennial Generation
(born 1977 – 1992)." So, these "Millennials" are in the age
range of 22 to 37. They are in their prime. They are wrapping-up their
education, starting lives away from home, starting families, developing
carreers, and more.
According to the article 10 Things
Millennials Won't Spend Money On in Time,
the Millenials are not consuming pay television (cable), stocks (fears from
growing up in the "great recession"), mass-produced beer, cars,
homes, "bulk warehouse goods" (think Costco or Sam's), weddings, and
health insurance. They are also less likely to be interested in having
children, and are less likely to rely on friend or family recommendations for
purchases.
There has been economic growth in this
country as our population has grown. But the latest Census notes that
there is a "fertility gap" between the volume of births and deaths in
this country. Time reports that death rates are increasing among our
aging population and birth rates are not. The population is still growing, just
not like it once was.
What affects will come from the
combination of slower growth and Millennial purchasing preferences? These articles
suggest that there is already change in what is consumed, that is what is
seen as desirable. Will telecommuting and the Internet affect transportation
purchases, commercial space needs, or other market segments? Will Amazon and
other non-traditional retailers result in decreased desire for shopping areas
and malls?
No one knows the answers to all of this.
There are many variables that will likely influence how change will hit us and
our economy in years to come. I think we can say that we do know two things for
sure. First, change is inevitable, we will have to adapt as it occurs. Second,
it turns out that trends and desires are not the same across the generations.
The things one generation values may be unimportant to the generation that
precedes or follows.
We will watch our economy deal with the
changes and the varied values as purchasing power evolves to each next
generation. It has the potential to change much about the society in which we
live and work. It may change where and how Americans work and bring challenges
to workers' compensation as we know it.